Brexit and the cost of a meal - what May has decided you voted for

Typical French greengrocer's stall in a market

Today dawned bright and sunny and, here at least, continues so. The local market was doing a roaring trade, even at midday and near to its closing time.

And still the stalls were loaded with: ripe fruit'n'veg, including bright red Spanish strawberries the size of medium tomatoes; beguiling cheeses from near and far, all begging to be tasted; fish, meat and poultry so fresh it could barely keep still; olives; spices; mouthwatering breads and pastries; takeaway meals prepared under guaranteed hygienic conditions; decent quality wines... the lot at ridiculously low prices.

Now let us compare with similar products in the UK 40 years ago, which is what Theresa May (with the help of both Tories and Labour) has decided you're going to get.

Of course, this is assuming the EU (a WTO member) immediately accepts trade on basic WTO rules with the tariffs proposed by the UK. No, WTO isn't a default treaty. It's a framework. You still have to negotiate with your trading partners, which - for a hard-Brexit UK - means every country on Earth.

Admittedly, it seems passing moronic to prefer a huge, global organisation with no elected representatives and centred only on trade to a regional union with your nearest neighbours and allies, with elected representatives whose remit covers not just trade, but also your health, social welfare and, er, human rights. Nevertheless, there you go. To think that May should in reality be cleverly manipulating public opinion, in order to do an overwhelmingly popular U-turn on Brexit once the entire country is up in arms as it realises what it's in for, appears to be generously over-estimating her intelligence and political savvy.

So, what did we have 40 years ago? Let me search my memory. It's not hard:

1. A limited choice of foods

The UK is a net importer of food, and we're not talking trivial amounts here. This is from the official statistics for 2014 from the Department for Environment, Food & Rural Affairs (DEFRA):

If you live in the UK, over a quarter of what you eat and drink is imported from the EU. By leaving the single market, the UK will be putting up trade barriers that will make it less interesting for EU/EEA companies to sell to the country, especially as there are plenty of other current or potential customers who aren't dicking about with trade agreements. The EU is the biggest net exporter in the world.

The UK is the second biggest net importer. This isn't a strong negotiating position. You can't buy on credit forever, especially as increasing numbers of businesses are announcing they're planning to move out of the UK to reduce the negative effect of Brexit on their activities. Unemployment will rocket. You'll have less money to buy food, so suppliers will sell elsewhere. Expect a choice of maybe 2 cheddars and 1 other UK cheese, ground coffee that looks and tastes like dirty water, less pasta, bulgur and couscous (durum wheat has to be imported), say bye-bye to juicy pineapples, melons, peaches, nectarines, etc. You might have to go back to the pharmacy to buy tiny, overpriced bottles of poor-quality olive oil. Yes, that was how things were in the early 70s.

Save time: throw away all those recipes calling for fancy ingredients like mango and sweet potatoes now. Of course, the UK does have plenty of delicious home-grown produce which you'll have an excellent opportunity to rediscover. In season only, of course. If you're quick. There just isn't enough to go round.

Be prepared to pick it yourself, while you're there. Many seasonal workers on UK farms have been coming from Europe, and they're already shunning the UK. I would too, if I knew I was in danger of xenophobic abuse and violence.

2. Food will be more expensive and of lower quality

Food prices overall in the UK are already higher than the EU average. The UK isn't in the Eurozone, which explains the price increases you've already suffered.

As of March 25, 2017 at 05:00PM, 1 GBP equals 1.1545 EUR. Closing rate 22 June 2016: €1.304 #Brexit

— Anarchic Teapot (@anarchic_teapot) 25 March 2017

That's a fall of 11.5% since the referendum and, compared to values during the past week, that's actually quite high. The £ was worth around €1.146 at one point (just after the date of 29th March was officially announced, to be precise). You can track the continuing adventures of the £ in the Twitter feed in the sidebar.

In 1976, what did a kilo of fresh juicy peaches cost in the EU? The same as a single, rather green and uninspiring peach in the UK. Meditate on that for a while.

What about the quality and prices of wine? Suffice to say that I'd hesitate to even cook with what you could buy in the 70s for twice the price of a decent table wine today. Stick to cider or beer, or learn to make your own. Of course, homemade wine means buying sugar (fortunately, the UK can grow sugar beet) or honey. Time to stop the Government gutting regulations to prevent pesticides killing bees and other pollinating insects.

3. No more nipping over on a day trip to Calais

This mainly applies to those in the South-East of England, of course. Brexit would also leave planes unable to fly between the UK and Europe, so it'll be the ferry or nothing. No more visa-free day trips to Calais to raid the local supermarket for gallons of cheap chemical lager and the sort of wine that turns anything it touches blue. Lovely long queues at the borders, coming and going! Customs duties and all that. Trust me: it used to be that you couldn't bring much in the way of foreign booze (about 3 bottles of wine or alcoholic equivalent) or fags, if you were a smoker, home before you hit the duty-free limit. The EU abolished all that.

On the plus side, there'll be fewer plonk-swilling yobboes being an international embarrassment and maybe the UK's home-brew industry will get a much-needed fillip. They'll have to fight with the innovative jam-makers for the fruit, of course.

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Other commentaries on Theresa May's projected "Hard Brexit":

• Observer Editorial: The Observer view on triggering Article 50
• National Farmers' Union: BREXIT, UK farming and the 'great unknowns'
• Economicshelp.org: Importance of exports to the economy
• Quartz: The British import a quarter of their food from the EU, and that’s a problem

Lastly, you can explore the different import/export profiles of different countries/economic blocks using the WTO Trade Profiles tool.