Every day one sees politicians on TV assuring us that nuclear deterrence works because there no nuclear weapon has been exploded in anger since 1945. They clearly have no understanding of statistics. With a few plausible assumptions, we can easily calculate that we can state, with 95% confidence, that the time until the next bomb explodes [...]
Read the rest at: DC's Improbable Science: Truth, falsehood and evidence: investigations of dubious and dishonest science - How long until the next bomb? Why nuclear deterrence doesn’t work
